Canadian families are starting their back-to-school shopping earlier than ever, driven by supply chain worries and inflation concerns that are reshaping how retailers approach the crucial summer selling season. A new survey from Field Agent Canada found that while 39% of households plan to spend more this year, economic uncertainty is pushing shoppers to hunt for deals and explore new discount channels.
The research, which surveyed 442 Canadian families, reveals a market where traditional retail hierarchies are shifting. Temu has emerged as an unexpected player in the back-to-school space, while Costco is challenging Walmart’s dominance in food categories through aggressive Canadian brand positioning.
“People are shopping earlier just to see if they can pick up things along the way that they know they’re going to need and get them at a deal,” said Jeff Doucette, President of Field Agent Canada. The trend has pushed some retailers to launch back-to-school displays as early as June, creating what Doucette calls “a mishmash of seasons.”
Supply Chain Anxiety Drives Earlier Shopping
The shift toward earlier shopping—with 36% of families planning to shop sooner than last year—stems from specific concerns about product availability. Doucette points to tariff uncertainties and the reality that most school supplies originate from China as key factors.
“There’s a lot of uncertainty, and people are maybe a little bit concerned with the extended lead times to get something here from China,” he explained. This has particularly benefited online platforms like Temu, which wasn’t on Field Agent’s radar in previous years but has gained traction among younger consumers.
The data shows 67% of families expect inflation to impact their shopping more than last year, yet demand remains strong across key categories. Basic school supplies top the list at 88% of households, followed by footwear and clothing at 83% each.
Walmart Faces New Challenges Despite Market Leadership
Walmart continues to dominate in-store shopping with 94% of families planning visits, but the retailer is facing pressure in specific categories. In lunch shopping, Costco has achieved parity with Walmart at 50% each—a shift Doucette attributes to Costco’s strategic embrace of Canadian brands.
“Costco has developed a huge amount of credibility over the last six months as a retailer supporting Canadian brands in a way that is pretty obvious when you’re in the building,” Doucette said. “Walmart was a little slower to react to that change.”
Walmart has responded by showcasing more Canadian products around store perimeters and enhancing its back-to-school presentation. Doucette notes the retailer now uses “very much more of almost a Target feel to their in-store point-of-purchase that makes it fun.”
Digital Shopping Reaches Maturity
Online shopping has become standard practice, with 79% of families planning Amazon purchases and 67% using online ordering for package delivery. However, the channel dynamics vary significantly by category. While Amazon leads online clothing sales at 27%, traditional retailers like Walmart still capture 56% of in-store clothing shopping.
The survey reveals only 12% of families won’t use any digital ordering methods, indicating broad acceptance of omnichannel shopping. This includes 48% planning online ordering for in-store pickup, suggesting retailers need robust fulfillment capabilities across all channels.
The economic environment is creating clear winners among retailers positioned at the value end of the spectrum. Dollarama has particularly benefited by expanding into grocery-adjacent categories through strategic product packaging.
“Once consumers find an item at Dollarama, they kind of lock them in as the destination for that item,” Doucette explained, citing the example of individually wrapped cookies. “Things start to transition from the grocery store list to the Dollarama list because they carry it.”
This shift presents challenges for mid-tier retailers caught between discount and premium positioning. Doucette sees particular pressure on middle-market clothing retailers as families embrace “fashion disposability” for items children will quickly outgrow.
“There’s the fast fashion machine type stuff and then there’s the items designed to last,” he said. “The middle ground is where the threat is right now.”
Canadian-Made Products Face Category Perception Issues
Despite 86% of Canadians valuing locally-made products in general retail contexts, only 30% prioritize Canadian-made items for back-to-school shopping. Doucette attributes this to consumer resignation that school supplies typically come from overseas.
“There’s a resignation that all this basic stuff comes from China anyway,” he said. “People just assume that back-to-school is not a Canadian thing.”
This creates opportunities for smaller retailers willing to curate Canadian alternatives. “It’s not enough to have it in your store—you have to make that the focal point of what you’re projecting as the message for the season,” Doucette advised.
Innovation Opportunities in Grocery and Convenience
The survey’s finding that 95% of families plan to pack lunches from home presents opportunities for creative merchandising. Doucette envisions grocery retailers creating dedicated lunch-preparation zones.
“A genius idea would be to have a ‘what’s for lunch tomorrow’ display where people could come in and just buy four or five items for the lunchbox tomorrow while they’re buying dinner tonight,” he suggested. The concept would address the reality that “after the second week, it’s just wash, rinse, repeat” for busy parents.
With packed lunches typically containing sandwiches with meat (73%), granola bars (80%), and fresh fruit (85%), retailers have clear product categories to target for these convenience-focused displays.
Beauty and Personal Care Show Growth Potential
The survey found 38% of families will purchase makeup for back-to-school, with 91% open to trying new brands. Shoppers Drug Mart/Pharmaprix leads this category at 57%, followed by Walmart at 55% and Sephora at 67%.
Hygiene products show stronger demand at 66% of families, led by toothpaste (74%), deodorant (72%), and shampoo (67%). These categories represent stable demand for pharmacy and grocery retailers during the season.
The Field Agent Canada research suggests retailers must balance multiple competing priorities for a successful back-to-school season. Price competitiveness remains essential, but execution varies by position in the market. Discount retailers benefit from clear value messaging, while premium brands need to justify investment-level pricing.
Successful retailers are those adapting their physical spaces to compete with online convenience while maintaining the experiential advantages of in-store shopping. As Doucette notes, this means going beyond simply having products available to creating focused, seasonal experiences that address specific customer pain points.
For families facing economic uncertainty, the retailers offering the clearest value proposition—whether through price, convenience, or curated selection—are positioned to capture market share in what remains a resilient spending category.
Dustin Fuhs is the founder and Editor-in-Chief of 6ix Retail, Toronto’s premier source for retail and hospitality industry news. As the former Editor-in-Chief of Retail Insider, Canada’s most-read retail trade publication, Dustin brings over two decades of expertise spanning retail, marketing, entertainment and hospitality sectors. His experience includes roles with industry giants such as The Walt Disney Company, The Hockey Hall of Fame, The Canadian Opera Company, Starbucks Canada and Blockbuster.
Recognized as a RETHINK Retail Top Retail Expert in 2024, 2025 and 2026, Dustin delivers insider perspectives on Toronto’s evolving retail landscape, from emerging brands to established players reshaping the city’s commercial districts.